Top 7 Hardware Stocks for AI Inference Growth (Test-Time Compute & AGI) (2025-2030)

Scaling test-time compute to reach AGI with more "thinking"...

Artificial intelligence (AI) isn’t just about training large models—it’s also about running them at scale, a phase known as inference or test-time compute. As models grow larger and more complex, inference requirements can rival (or even surpass) training workloads.

This is because serving massive AI models—like those edging closer to AGI-level capabilities—demands high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced cooling, specialized HPC servers, and ultra-fast networking to handle the intense, ongoing computation load. (This is what AI companies need to cost-effectively scale reasoning models e.g. OpenAI’s new o3 model).

I researched each of these market segments (i.e. niches), then determined which specific segments were likely to benefit the most over the next 2-5y if inference (test-time compute) demands continue spiking.

Then I looked at specific companies within each segment that likely stand to gain significantly in revenue/profits based on: (1) tech moats, (2) current financials/biz metrics, (3) ROI upside (TAM & projected sales/margins for AI inference-related offerings), and (4) risk factors.

Note: This is a research-oriented perspective, not personal investment advice.

7 High-Potential Hardware Stocks Poised for AGI Acceleration

This ranking balances each company’s relevance to inference-scaling, competitive moat within their domain/niche, and current valuation relative to upside potential.

1. Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Why #1? High Potential ROI + Direct AI Server Focus

• Inference-Focused HPC Servers: SMCI directly supplies the physical servers that run large-scale test-time compute. As inference clusters scale, HPC server integrators are critical—especially ones offering full-rack solutions with advanced cooling (DLC) to handle GPUs running massive CoT or tree-of-thought inference.

• Over 70% Revenue from AI/HPC: SMCI is already heavily exposed to AI inference, building out large DLC-based GPU superclusters (e.g., 100k GPUs). If test-time compute really explodes, they’re in prime position to see more big-cluster wins.

• Undervalued on Paper: A forward P/E near ~11, PEG ~0.3. If you believe their reported financials are accurate (still subject to BDO’s audit), the stock looks cheap relative to HPC growth.

Downside Risk:

• Audit Cloud: Switched auditors from EY to BDO. If negative restatements appear, it could damage the stock severely.

• Short Interest: ~13–15% of float. Volatility is high.

• Reliance on GPU Supply: If GPU availability lags or HPC spending slows, SMCI’s revenue timing could be lumpy.

Inference-to-AGI Fit

• Rack-Scale HPC is the workhorse for large inference loads. If inference expands beyond training-level scale, HPC server OEMs like SMCI stand to see continuing orders for bigger, more power-dense clusters.

• Potential: High 2–5 year ROI (possibly 2–3× if the audit is clean and HPC demand remains robust).

Note: If SMCI fails the upcoming BDO audit in a big way, the entire HPC server “value play” aspect is off the table… consider them gone from this list. Nobody else has the same HPC server focus + small/mid-cap undervaluation.